Saturday, April 30th

CFL: (-0.5) ZAGREB – Slaven Belupo (1.89@Pinnacle, 1.88@SBO, 12Bet)

2016 is the year of Slaven Belupo's biggest success – they reached the Cup final (ok, they did beat Aston Villa in 2001 in Intertoto Cup, but this is much more important, I'd say). The final (one match only, on neutral pitch in Osijek is scheduled for May 10th), and since SB strongly holds 7th position – their mind is on the Cup final, no doubt about that. They have more than a few injured players, another couple of doubtful, and I'm sure that coach Kopic (who was on Zagreb's bench last season) won't risk anything, as he wants all the players fit for the May 10th.

If Zagreb started to play like this a bit earlier (1:0 defeat at mighty Dinamo, 2:0 win vs RNK Split and 4:1 win away at Istra), their chances to stay in the league would be much better. But, still – 3 rounds before the end and 6 points behind Istra, who holds 9th position (relegation play-off spot), seems possible to catch. Istra plays at Dinamo today, so if Zagreb beats SB – they'd be only 3 points behind, 2 rounds before the end, and much easier schedule than Istra's. On top of that, one of Zagreb's 3 wins this season was vs SB (who has only one away win this season, scored 13 goals and conceeded 27 in 16 away matches).

CFL: (-2) DINAMO – Istra (1.74@Pinnacle)

Dinamo – Istra OVER 3 GOALS (1.83@Pinnacle, 1.82@SBO)

Dinamo won 1:0, 2:1 or 3:2 this season as much as 13 times. But, they also have wins like 3:0, 3:1, 4:1 and 5:1. If we take a look at the results when Istra played at Dinamo in the past 5 seasons, we will find 3:1 once, 3:0, 6:0 and 4:1. Poor offensive performances have to stop (rather sooner than later – only 3 goals scored in 4 matches, 4 consecutive clean sheets), weather is just lovely today, if Dinamo wins, they'd confirm the title (4 points 2 rounds before the end – and their B-team Lokomotiva is waiting in the last round) – so, this is the key match!

Istra looks horrible – they conceeded 13 goals in the last 5 rounds and scored only one. Their end of the season will be full of stress, as tonight they might be only 3 points ahead of Zagreb (they have to play vs RNK Split and at Rijeka after this match, and they can't count on any points in those matches). I expect they'll be trashed. Why? If Hajduk, Inter and Lokomotiva can score 3, and Zagreb 4 (that all happened in April), I'm sure Dinamo can do (at least) that as well.  

Btw, we might have a bet tommorrow as well – so tune in at 11 AM GMT tomorrow.

Monday, April 25th

CFL: (-0.5) SLAVEN BELUPO - Inter Zapresic (1.92@12Bet, 1.88@Pinnacle)

Slaven Belupo - Inter Zapresic OVER 2,5 GOALS (2.05@Pinnacle)

 

2 clubs can be more than satisfied with this season – they both avoid relegation early enough, and that's why they can play relaxed till the end of the season. Inter wil probably end it as high as 6th place, while Slaven Belupo has the chance to win the first trophy in club's history, as they will meet Dinamo in the Cup final. Slaven Belupo is a team that plays much better at home (they won 24 of 33 points at home). Quick look at their recent home form might fool you, as their 2 matches were goalless draws (vs 2nd Rijeka and 3rd Hajduk). But, before that they beat Istra 2:0, and meaanwhile they trashed Rijeka 3:0 in the Cup. I'm pretty sure that this is the match in which they'll finally score (at least 2, I'd say), after 4 consecutive goalless matches (3 of them ended 0:0 – and I can tell you – in SB they were satisfied with each of them). Inter's goal is to be 6th at the end of the season, but to be honest, I think SB deserves that position more. But, I expect relaxed match with at least 3 goals and a home win (they played 4 times this season, 3 official matches and a friendly – and at least 3 goals were scored in eacg of them)

Pick for today

Today will have a pick or two, tune in at 2PM GMT

Sunday, april 24th

Three bets, all odds at 12bet.
Sorry, but no preview this time.
CFL: Hajduk - (-0.25) RIJEKA 2.12
CFL: (-0.5) LOKOMOTIVA - Osijek 1.79
Lokomotiva - Osijek OVER 2.5 GOALS 2.19

CFL: RNK Split - (-0.75) DINAMO (1.75@SBO, 1.74@Pinnacle)

Our first bet failed miserably in the first half, but it seems will win the other bet and produce 0.2 point loss from this match.

Dinamo is near 11th title in a row, and although they lost 1:0 this autumn at RNK Split, form of their opponent is - as low as it gets. I mentioned several times that it's all about motivation for Dinamo this season, and I think they'll be motivated for this one - as they want some kind of revenge for that defeat, and much more important - they want to be champions once more. RNK Split's coach Goran Sablic will "play" defensively in this one, and I wouldn't be surprised if Dinamo wins 1:0 or 2:0, but in case of an early goal, I can also see Split's net full of goals. And that's why we're skipping O/U bet this time, although stats say "under".

Saturday, April 23rd - part 1

CFL: Istra – (+0.5) ZAGREB (1.85@Pinnacle, 1.82@SBO)

CFL: Istra – Zagreb UNDER 2.25 GOALS (1.99@Pinnacle, 1.98@SBO)

If Istra wins a point here, they'll mathematically avoid direct relegation. And they're aware that they won't catch Osijek, who is 7 points ahead just 4 rounds till the end. They haven't won for months (since mid-October),but they shared points very often. But, I'm pretty sure they won't be rushing in this one. On the other hand, Zagreb finally won in the last round, but that's a bit too late – as they're 9 points behind Istra. Still, their defense looks solid recently (only 1 goal conceeded in the last 180 minutes, vs Dinamo). They have 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 6 (but defeats were at top 3 teams and at Osijek), while Istra has only 1 draw and 5 defeats (and they failed to score a single goal in those 6). That's why I think Zagreb is closer to the win here, but low (or no) scoring draw is definitely an option  (last 4 matches between these 2 ended 0:0 or 1:1 after 90 minutes).

P.S. We might get involved in the remaining match as well, but I'm waiting for the last minute team news, so I'll be publishing that pick(s) at 3 PM GMT.

Terrible midweek

Zagreb finally managed to beat someone, but that 2:0 was our only (half)winning bet. Rijeka and Dinamo played more or less boring match (a void and a 1 point loss), but the match that broke my heart was Hajduk - Lokomotiva. Our bet was winning one till 75th minute, when Susic scored from the spot (that penalty was at least doubtful), and the Juranovic scored in 94th minute - and instead of a void, our bet was suddenly lost. I can't say I'm surprised, as we had more than a few injury time goals that cost us a lots of points (I don't wanna know how much exactly, I really don't).

Wednesday, March 20th

CFL: Hajduk – (+1) LOKOMOTIVA (1.76@Pinnacle)

Only one bet for today. Hajduk has only one home defeat this season (9 wins, 5 draws), but if we take a closer look – we can see that all the wins by 2 or more goals were vs teams from the bottom half ot the table. Hajduk has 6 consecutive clean sheets in the league (they conceeded 6 in 2 Cup matches vs Dinamo, though), but that series can't last forever – after all, Lokomotiva scored at least a goal in the last 8 H2H matches. Btw, Hajduk scored only 5 goals in those 6 matches (3 of them were goalless draws, while 3 of those 5 goals were scored from the 11m spot). Hajduk has even bigger series this autumn – 8 clean sheets in a row (that was between 2 matches vs Lokomotiva!). On top of that, Hajduk's forward Vlasic is injured, and he's the one who's making the most mess in opponent's defense. Hajduk would be satisfied with a point here, as they'd stay at 9 points in front of Lokomotiva only 4 rounds to go, so 3rd place would be secured.

On the other hand, after RNK Split failed to beat Zagreb yesterday, Lokomotiva's chances to win the 4th place are even better. Only Jerko Leko is injured, they can be quite relaxed and a minimal defeat is the worst case scenario in this match – I wouldn't be surprised if they win.

Today

We will have a pick or two today. Tune in at 2PM GMT.

CFL: Tuesday, April 19th

CFL: Zagreb – RNK Split UNDER 2,25 GOALS (1,85@12Bet)

NK Zagreb failed to score in the last 5 matches, while last 3 RNK Split's matches ended 0:0. In fact, RNK Split's matches produced 3 or more goals just 8 times in 31 rounds – and 5 of those 8 were at home. On top of that, they have offensive selection problems – their best goalscorer Bagaric is injured, as well as midfielder Miljkovic. This could be another Split's draw, but after 4 draws in a row (or 5 in the last 6), maybe it would be too much.

CFL: Rijeka – (0) DINAMO (1.90@Pinnacle)

CFL: Rijeka – Dinamo OVER 2.0 GOALS (1.87@Pinnacle)

This match could give us the answer to the main question: Who'll be the champion? I'm pretty sure that Dinamo will win 11th consecutive title. Let's take a look at the results of these 2 clubs this season – 0:0 back in August (Rijeka always plays defensive minded in Zagreb, this time they succeded), 2:1 Rijeka's win – in a match that Dinamo was much better team, took the lead, but then Taravel earned a stupid red card, and then Sharbini – who's no longer in Rijeka, scored a winner in the injury time (that goal cost us a lot, we had official bet on draw), and finally 3:0 Dinamo's win back in February – Rijeka played defensive minded, but conceeded 3 in the last 30 minutes. I expect pretty much similar match today, in which Dinamo (at full strength – even Pjaca is back after injury, he'll be on the bench) will be much better team. But, since Dinamo would be satisfied with a draw (although coach Mamic says that he wants to win), that's why we're taking this DNB option here. I also have to mention once again that in the CFL lots of things are depending on motivation of Dinamo's players. And they'll be motivated tonight, no doubt about that. Ath that's why I think that there's lots of value in OVER 2.0 GOALS at the odds Pinnacle is offering, a void here should really be the worst case scenario.

Recap + midweek picks

This was a great weekend!

2,56 points profit. These are the recorded odds, sorry I didn't publish it earlier.

Recorded odds:

Lokomotiva – Rijeka DRAW – 3.64@Pinnacle – FT 0:1

Lokomotiva – Rijeka UNDER 2,5 GOALS – 2.06@Pinnacle – FT 0:1

Dinamo – (+2.75) ZAGREB  - 1.81@Pinnacle – FT 1:0

Dinamo – Zagreb UNDER 3,5 GOALS  - 1.99@Pinnacle – FT 1:0

Slaven Belupo – Hajduk UNDER 2,25 GOALS – 1.70@Pinnacle, 12Bet – FT 0:0

(0) SLAVEN BELUPO – Hajduk – 1.47@12Bet – FT 0:0

Anyway, two matches scheduled for tomorrow, including the most important match of the season - Rijeka vs Dinamo. We have a non-stop schedule in the following 8 days - the only sure day-off is Friday, April 22th. I can definitely see value in current odds, so tune in at 11 AM.

Sunday, april 17th

Cfl: (0) SLAVEN BELUPO - Hajduk
Cfl: Slaven - hajduk Under 2.25

No preview. I'm writing this from mobile ovome. Hajduk has major selection problems, all the creative and offensive players are injured

Saturday, April 16th

CFL: Dinamo – Zagreb UNDER 3,5 GOALS (1.99@Pinnacle)

CFL: Dinamo – (+2.75) ZAGREB (1.77@Pinnacle)

Zoran Mamic decided to rest some of Dinamo's key players before the match at Rijeka in the next round. Rog, Coric and Soudani will probably miss this one – maybe even some other players. Dinamo will win this match, no doubt about that, but the main problem is their player's motivation – after all, they won 7 of last 10 league matches by exactly one goal difference (1:0 five times, 2:1 twice, while only vs their B-team Lokomotiva it was 3:2). That mentioned match – as well as another win vs Lokomotiva (3:1) were the only 2 matches in the last 17 (!) in which 4 or more goals were scored.

In these same last 17 rounds of NK Zagreb – only once there were 4 goals scored – you wouldn't believe it was vs Lokomotiva (3:1). Round before they lost at the very same Dinamo 4:1, but that's only because Zagreb scored in the first minute. In the remaining two H2H matches this season, Dinamo won at Zagreb 2:0 and 2:1. I think the most likely result we'll se here is 1:0, 2:0 or 2:1. After all, Zagreb has great goalkeeper – Dominik Livakovic (keeper of U21 national team). He'll join Dinamo next season, and I don't think his future teammates will fill his net to the top.

CFL: Lokomotiva – Rijeka DRAW (3.62@Pinnacle)

CFL: Lokomotiva – Rijeka UNDER 2,5 GOALS (2.03@Pinnacle)

When two offensive minded teams play each other, you'd expect an over bet. But, Rijeka's first choice forward Bezjak and important midfielder Males are suspended for this one. On the other hand, Lokomotiva knows that a point here would be great – and they'd help their big brother Dinamo very much, before the derby in Rijeka in the next round. I think we'll see a match that will look like their Cup clash in December (Rijeka won 1:0, suspended Bezjak scored the only goal), Lokomotiva's coach Sreten Cuk isn't hiding that's what he'll try (He tried that in Rijeka last time they played – and they lost 2:0). On top ot that, last time these 2 clubs shared points was back in 2013 – and they played 13 times since then. 

P.S. We might get involved with the remaining match - Slaven Belupo - Hajduk, scheduled for tomorrow. Please tune in tomorrow at 11 AM GMT.

Saturday, April 9th

CFL: Lokomotiva – Slaven Belupo OVER 2,5 GOALS

(1.85@Pinnacle, 1.82@SBO, 1.81@12Bet)

Lokomotiva is offensive minded and very young team. They have 2nd best attack in the league – they scored 49 goals in 29 matches, and on of the 3rd worst defence of the league – they conceeded 43 goals, only Istra and Zagreb, two worst teams of the league, conceeded more. In those 29 matches, only 7 times less than 3 goals were scored. Weather is fine (cloudy and warm, almost ideal for football), the pitch is getting better after a week od 25 degrees Celsius.

Slaven Belupo beat Rijeka 3:0 in the Cup which means they have a chance to win the first trophy in the club's history – if they beat Dinamo in 90 minutes on neutral pitch in Osijek. They have 9 points more then 9th Istra, and with only 7 rounds till the end of the season, they can be quite relaxed. After 3 clean sheets in a row, I just can see another one – Lokomotiva scored them 6 goals in 3 matches they played this season (2:2, 1:1 and 3:0), and I expect another match with at least 3 goals.

Btw, odds movement suggest that Lokomotiva will win this one, I think that scenario is very likely too, but I wouldn't be surprised with 2:1 win and 1,72 for -0.75 AH doesn't offer any value.

Recap and Cup

Profitable weekend, after Split and Hajduk played a match that looked pretty much as I expected. Unfortunately, Istra failed to score from their chances, but Franko Andrijasevic scored a hat-trick for Lokomotiva, so we had a tiny loss on that match.

2nd leg of SF of Croatian Cup is scheduled for today and tomorrow, but I decided long time ago not to bet on this competition. Limits are even lower than for the CFL, and results are always hard to predict. Still, if I had to pick a bet for each match, I'd go with under 2,25 GOALS for Slaven Belupo - Rijeka, and  (-1) AH Dinamo's win. But, since I don't have to - I won't.

Next round of CFL is scheduled for this weekend, and I don't see any value in Osijek - RNK Split scheduled for Friday. I'd probably decide to take UNDER 2,5 GOALS bet, but not at these odds. We'll probably get in at least one match on Saturday or Sunday, but more about that on Saturday, at 11 AM GMT.

CFL: Istra – Lokomotiva OVER 2.5 GOALS

(2.04@Pinnacle, 2.02@SBO)

CFL: (+0.25) ISTRA – Lokomotiva

(1.83@Pinnacle)

We'll have two bets for this match. Over 2,5 goals best is a must – specially at these odds, as all 11 matches these 2 clubs played since August 2013 produced at least 3 goals. Lokomotiva plays offensive minded – they strongly hold the 1st place on O/U table – only 7 of 28 matches failed to produce at least 3 goals this season. To be honest, I'd take OVER 2,75 bet as well, so I'm more than happy to take OVER 2,5 at thee odds.

Istra has no selection problems – all the players are fit, no one is suspended. All the players were together during this international break. Quite opposite, Lokomotiva had 8 players in U-21 national teams of Croatia and Albania. If we take a look at the matches between these 2 clubs played in Pula in the last 2 seasons, we can see that Istra has 2 wins and 1 draw at home. Although they haven't won for a long time, they deserved to win much more than 3 points from 3 draws in the last 7 matches after the winter break. After all – they played 4 away matches – and shared points 3 times, they lost at home vs top 2 clubs only 0:1 and vs 1:2 vs Inter Zapresic. I definitely wouldn't be surprised if they win today, but even if they share points, we'll still earn almost half a point.

CFL: RNK Split – Hajduk DRAW

 (3.03@Pinnacle)

This is the match in which both clubs would be satisfied with a draw. Hajduk would remain safe on 3rd position, while Split would still be in fight for 4th place. I don't expect to see to many goals here, but as the main O/U margin is at 2.0, there's definitely no value there. 4 of the last 6 matches between these 2 clubs ended 0:0 or 1:1. No doubt that both teams will play defensive minded - Split because it's always important not to looe vs Hajduk, while Hajduk as they don't have really good attacker. I think another 0:0 or 1:1 is the most likely to be the result of this city derby scheduled for Sunday.

Pick(s) coming up tomorrow!

It's been a while since my last post, but now I'm back. I don't take bets on April 1st - as funny results are possible (nothing funny in a goalless draw between NK Zagreb and Inter Zapresic), but that is one of the matches I'd skip almost any time of the year.

Croatian National Team played two friendlies - and that's something I'm certainly not interested in. Betting on friendly matches? In March? No, thanks. In my humble opinion, only the friendly matches few weeks before EURO or World Cup make sense.

Our last bet was a losing one - Hajduk beat Dinamo after a long time. Hajduk's players found their balls from Wednesday to Sunday, they sent the ball in the net early (4th minute), and Dinamo looked much worse then 4 days before.

But, plenty of action ahead of us, we'll definitely have at least one pick tomorrow, so if you want to know where my money is, tune in at 11 AM GMT, so half an hour later than usual. I'm also interested in one match scheduled for Sunday, so I'll be posting that one too.