2016 is the year of Slaven Belupo's biggest success – they reached the Cup final (ok, they did beat Aston Villa in 2001 in Intertoto Cup, but this is much more important, I'd say). The final (one match only, on neutral pitch in Osijek is scheduled for May 10th), and since SB strongly holds 7th position – their mind is on the Cup final, no doubt about that. They have more than a few injured players, another couple of doubtful, and I'm sure that coach Kopic (who was on Zagreb's bench last season) won't risk anything, as he wants all the players fit for the May 10th.
If Zagreb started to play like this a bit earlier (1:0 defeat at mighty Dinamo, 2:0 win vs RNK Split and 4:1 win away at Istra), their chances to stay in the league would be much better. But, still – 3 rounds before the end and 6 points behind Istra, who holds 9th position (relegation play-off spot), seems possible to catch. Istra plays at Dinamo today, so if Zagreb beats SB – they'd be only 3 points behind, 2 rounds before the end, and much easier schedule than Istra's. On top of that, one of Zagreb's 3 wins this season was vs SB (who has only one away win this season, scored 13 goals and conceeded 27 in 16 away matches).
CFL: (-2) DINAMO – Istra (1.74@Pinnacle)
Dinamo – Istra OVER 3 GOALS (1.83@Pinnacle, 1.82@SBO)
Dinamo won 1:0, 2:1 or 3:2 this season as much as 13 times. But, they also have wins like 3:0, 3:1, 4:1 and 5:1. If we take a look at the results when Istra played at Dinamo in the past 5 seasons, we will find 3:1 once, 3:0, 6:0 and 4:1. Poor offensive performances have to stop (rather sooner than later – only 3 goals scored in 4 matches, 4 consecutive clean sheets), weather is just lovely today, if Dinamo wins, they'd confirm the title (4 points 2 rounds before the end – and their B-team Lokomotiva is waiting in the last round) – so, this is the key match!
Istra looks horrible – they conceeded 13 goals in the last 5 rounds and scored only one. Their end of the season will be full of stress, as tonight they might be only 3 points ahead of Zagreb (they have to play vs RNK Split and at Rijeka after this match, and they can't count on any points in those matches). I expect they'll be trashed. Why? If Hajduk, Inter and Lokomotiva can score 3, and Zagreb 4 (that all happened in April), I'm sure Dinamo can do (at least) that as well.